Posts tagged with ‘facebook’
Caitlin Dewey, Teens are officially over Facebook
Between fall 2014 and spring 2014, when Piper Jaffray last conducted this survey, Facebook use among teenagers aged 13 to 19 plummeted from 72 percent to 45 percent. In other words, less than half of the teenagers surveyed said “yes” when asked if they use Facebook. (A note: There’s no spring data available for the “no networks” option, which is why that spot is blank.)
This is confirmation of Mary Meeker’s prediction about the defection of users from large social-scale networks like Twitter and Facebook to small social scale chat solutions. And that defection will happen first in teens, who are the biggest adopters of mobile.
As I wrote at the time,
Meeker makes a really smart analysis of this trend, and contrasts it with services like Facebook: people are transitioning to messaging tools geared toward frequent communication with a small group of contacts — or what I have been calling communications with a set — and moving away from broadcasting messages to large audiences — like Twitter and Facebook — which is communication with a scene, in my terms.
As Meeker describes it, this means the action is moving from supporting sets and away from scenes, where the value of the network is not principally about the number of nodes, but the number of sets and the amount of messaging going on. (Note that this sounds like a rediscovery of Reed’s Law, which states that the utility of a network grows exponentially over the number of nodes, based on the number of groups that form.)
In the consumer web, this shift is going to pose interesting challenges for businesses and advertisers, because users will be less willing to accept ad tracking, or ads at all, in what they generally consider a private context for communications in sets.
We are seeing the same trend in work tech: the surge of interest in tools like Slack, Hipchat, and the like, and the relative decline of now-conventional ‘social collaboration’ tools. Note that Piper Jaffray missed the swing to chat tools, because they didn’t ask.
This is going to be the big work tech trend of the year. And I will be talking about that subject in the Bixtrix24 webinar Oct 14 at 11am Eastern: see here for more deets.
Benedict Evans, Whatsapp and $19bn
"For most of its rather short life, Twitter Inc. rarely mentioned that its user base is more racially diverse than U.S. Internet users as a whole."
I like the services that Black people like best. Hmmm. Where’s Tumblr?
Researchers predict that Facebook will become a small shadow of its current size, based on the tailing off off Google searches for the name. This is what befell Bebo and Myspace, and they believe it’s a contagion model, like passing germs around.
excerpted from The Guardian
John Cannarella and Joshua Spechler, from the US university’s mechanical and aerospace engineering department, have based their prediction on the number of times Facebook is typed into Google as a search term. The charts produced by the Google Trends service show Facebook searches peaked in December 2012 and have since begun to trail off.
"Ideas, like diseases, have been shown to spread infectiously between people before eventually dying out, and have been successfully described with epidemiological models," the authors claim in a paper entitled Epidemiological modelling of online social network dynamics.
"Ideas are spread through communicative contact between different people who share ideas with each other. Idea manifesters ultimately lose interest with the idea and no longer manifest the idea, which can be thought of as the gain of ‘immunity’ to the idea."
Facebook reported nearly 1.2 billion monthly active users in October, and is due to update investors on its traffic numbers at the end of the month. While desktop traffic to its websites has indeed been falling, this is at least in part due to the fact that many people now only access the network via their mobile phones.
For their study, Cannarella and Spechler used what is known as the SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) model of disease, which creates equations to map the spread and recovery of epidemics.
They tested various equations against the lifespan of Myspace, before applying them to Facebook. Myspace was founded in 2003 and reached its peak in 2007 with 300 million registered users, before falling out of use by 2011. Purchased by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp for $580m, Myspace signed a $900m deal with Google in 2006 to sell its advertising space and was at one point valued at $12bn. It was eventually sold by News Corp for just $35m.
The 870 million people using Facebook via their smartphones each month could explain the drop in Google searches – those looking to log on are no longer doing so by typing the word Facebook into Google.
But Facebook’s chief financial officer David Ebersman admitted on an earnings call with analysts that during the previous three months: “We did see a decrease in daily users, specifically among younger teens.”
Investors do not appear to be heading for the exit just yet. Facebook’s share price reached record highs this month, valuing founder Mark Zuckerberg’s company at $142bn.
I’ve been saying for year that Facebook is the new AOL. Like AOL, it was a gateway to a new world online — in Facebook’s case the social web, in AOL’s, the early, pre-social web — and everyone relied on it as a common denominator. And they proved that you can make a business on simplifying the complex for novices, but they won’t remain long.
Teenagers and hipsters — who define new social scenes — are abandoning Facebook, as the company has admitted. Those are the canaries in the coal mine, portending the demise of the once great Facebook.
Yes, teenagers are leaving Facebook (mostly for Twitter and Snapchat it seems) but we wouldn’t say Facebook has a “problem”: they are gaining a lot more users in other age groups than they are losing teens and the buying power of these new users is much greater, which is what Facebook advertisers want anyway.
They can say they don’t care, but when the kids leave, it’s not hip anymore, and then you are in descent.
Jim Edwards, Mark Zuckerberg Admits: ‘Coolness Is Done For Us’
People assume that we’re trying to be cool. It’s never been my goal. I’m the least cool person there is! We’re almost 10 years old so we’re definitely not a niche thing any more so that kind of angle for coolness is done for us. - Mark Zuckerberg
Facebook is the new AOL. When do they acquire Linkedin and cement their stodginess?
Tim Mcdonald, Huffinton Post’s director of community, has announced that posting comments on HuffPo henceforth will require a Facebook identity, unless you apply for permission to post anonymously:
Now, as Arianna Huffington announced earlier this year, we’re going a step further to evolve our platform — which has always been about community and engagement — to meet the needs of the grown-up Internet. On December 10, after weeks of fine-tuning our commenting technology and platform, we are pulling the switch in a way that will keep the best parts about commenting on HuffPost while bringing more civility and accountability to the experience.
Here’s how to get started under this new system. When you log in to your account and go to make a comment, you will be prompted to link your commenting account to your verified Facebook account. Then, choose how you’d like your name to be displayed. You can either display your first and last names, or your first name and last initial. This is the only information that will be viewable to the community at large, and you will have control over your private information via Facebook’s privacy settings.
If you do not want to link your Huffington Post account to Facebook, you can still log in to your account and fan and fave other users and their comments. And if, for whatever reason, you fear posting a comment under your name — if you are a whistleblower, or fear harassment, or any other reason — you can apply for the right to comment anonymously by filling out this form.
Oh, yes, how very grown up! You must use only this one identity, and at all times and in all contexts, and we’ll put that power in the hands of a company — Facebook — that has proven itself incapable of putting the interests of people ahead of corporatism.
Now that Zuckerberg and co. are turning the Facebook news feed into a daily newspaper, maybe Facebook will acquire AOL and integrate HuffPo into the user experience directly.