How soon will autonomous trucks lead to millions of truck drivers losing their jobs? Soon.
According to Morgan Stanley, complete autonomous capability will be here by 2022, followed by massive market penetration by 2026, and the cars we know and love today then entirely extinct in another 20 years thereafter.
Granted, this is only one estimate of many and it’s all educated guesswork. So here are some other estimates:
- Navigant Research: “By 2035, sales of autonomous vehicles will reach 95.4 million annually, representing 75% of all light-duty vehicle sales.”
- IHS Automotive: “There should be nearly 54 million self-driving cars in use globally by 2035.”
- ABI Research: “Half of new vehicles shipping in North America to have driverless, robotic capabilities by 2032.”
- Nissan: “In 2020 we’re talking more autonomous drive capability. It’s going to be an evolutionary process and 2020 will be the first year to truly see some of these capabilities start to be introduced in the vehicle.”
Take all of these estimates together, and we’re looking at a window of massive disruption starting somewhere between 2020 and 2030.